"zipfuel" (zipfuel)
03/06/2020 at 21:23 • Filed to: CLASSIC CARS, Never take advice from boomers, Economics, Carmageddon | 0 | 30 |
That Mustang on today’s NPOCP got me thinking about how we could predict the future crash of the classic car market.
Cars have really only been consumer goods that the average middle class person could collect of around a century and realistically only post WW2 did they become truly ubiquitous.
So while the baby boomers weren’t the first generation to collect classic cars they were born around the time cars were really picking up steam in the 50s and obviously idolize the cool metal from their teens in the 60s.
This means that the biggest wave of car collectors in history is shortly going to drop dead!
Classic car prices have been going bananas for years driven (I suspect) by a bunch older folks with free time and lots of disposable income.
Since they can’t take it with them (barring those who accelerate uncontrollably into Costco) and minus the % hung onto by their kids the vast majority of these cars will hit the market.
The truly rare and collectible numbers matching stuff will still command some kind of a premium but all those semi restored Sunday drivers like today’s Mustang Mach 1, no way they’re fetching multiple tens of thousands any more.
Even we who like cars can’t afford for spend 10k+ o n a toy and increasingly people don’t have garage spa ce. Eventually t he kids/estate will just run out of storage or get sick of the Craigslist scammers and cut bait to the first person who actually shows up with a wad of cash that isn’t insulting and will get them most of the way to Disneyland. I reckon $5k is enough money to make someone who doesn’t care at all about cars think “good enough”
But all this is speculation: how do we measure the glut.
First, how many “classic” cars are there out there? Does Hagarty or any of the other specialist insurers publish annual data for how many vehicles they insure?
Are there industry publications that track this sort of thing - demographic size for sale of SBC
parts, white new balance
and crying dolls quarterly
etc
I’m sure state vehicle registration
data is available but that feels too cumbersome and many of these may be off the road already.
Once we know how many there are approximately total you could extrapolate by generation and give the boomers some extra weight.
Then we’d need to know the volume of churn in the classic car market today: maybe there’s transaction volume or listing data on something like BaT.
Then assume they all hit the market within a 10-15 yr window and crank up the supply line while the demand line drops too.
What are we looking at? A classic car-tsunami , a high tide or just a ripple?
Anyone care to take a stab at the math? Or find someone who already did? My economics skills are very creaky and frankly I already wasted too much of my precious free time on writing this post when I have man y more projects to work on.
Discuss
fintail
> zipfuel
03/06/2020 at 21:33 | 9 |
In a way, it has already happened, with the “greatest generation” and even the one before that. Values of common prewar cars have been stagnant or declining for some time - Model As and Ts often cost more in raw dollars 40 years ago than today, and much more when adjusted for inflation. I wonder if data from that material could help.
Grindintosecond
> zipfuel
03/06/2020 at 21:37 | 1 |
I have a standing offer given to buy a 57 t bird. I’m just meh about it. Owner is 80+ and it’s just a driver, but numbers matching v8 3 speed.
Meh.
Pe
rhaps quite a few will be parted out.
lone_liberal
> Grindintosecond
03/06/2020 at 21:52 | 0 |
The baby birds were the first thing I thought of. It seems like they are more affordable today, barring rare models, than they were 10-15 years ago.
TheRealBicycleBuck
> zipfuel
03/06/2020 at 21:58 | 7 |
The people who track the market are watching it tank.
“Every day, I get the same calls: Guy dies, his kids don’t want the cars, and they want me to sell them. Or it’s knee surgery, hip surgery or prostate cancer and the owner simply can’t enjoy the car anymore,” Mr. Sheehan said.
What Mr. Sheehan describes is most likely the vanguard of a wave of baby boomers getting out of the market, and nobody seems to have a clear idea of what comes next.
https://www.whichcar.com.au/features/classic-car-market
https://www.iamagazine.com/markets/market/classic-cars
https://www.ibisworld.com/united-states/market-research-reports/classic-car-dealers-industry/
https://www.hagerty.com/articles-videos/articles/keyword/classic-car-market
WilliamsSW
> zipfuel
03/06/2020 at 21:59 | 3 |
A high tide, which we’ve already passed by the way.
All you said is true, and there are a lot more boomers than gen Xers like me- but they won’t die off or lose interest all at once. The values of these cars will just slowly slide down to more reasonable levels, especially the less special versions. Hemi Mopars and the like will always be valuable but probably won't go higher imho.
lone_liberal
> fintail
03/06/2020 at 21:59 | 5 |
It might be less pronounced than for the Model T and Model A markets since people can more easily drive cars from the 60s in modern traffic. Also those of us that are early GenX grew up lusting for the muscle cars of the 60s because the new cars of our youth were malaise era slugs. Still, there aren’t many of us so the market should soften eventually.
XJDano
> Grindintosecond
03/06/2020 at 22:02 | 1 |
Problem is that the $5,000 you offer will only buy a few months in a middle class nursing home. Its really expensive to get really old.
zipfuel
> fintail
03/06/2020 at 22:05 | 2 |
Hmmm now I’m searching for big black prohibition era cars with running boards!
Demon-Xanth knows how to operate a street.
> zipfuel
03/06/2020 at 22:06 | 2 |
There are a few levels:
Super classics, the Miura, 250GTO, that lot. They will always command a high premium and be far out of reach of most people.
The generation classic-special: currently, the Supra Turbo, the 69 Camaros used to be the kings of the market, before that it was the (original, real) 32 Roadsters. These were the uniquely desirable models that commanded a much higher premium during their spike, they will fall, but not likely to affordable levels. See the Pontiac GTO.
The generation classic-normal: these will have a brief rise, but fall steeply as their restored value falls below the restore cost. Why put $10,000 into paint on a car when a fully restored one can be had for $8,000? My 1961 Corvair was an example of this. I enjoyed it, but it was something that needed time and space that I no longer had. Or lots of money. See the Pontiac LeMans
The quirky: These always have a niche, never worth a ton, not easy to maintain since the parts were never widespread, but their values tend to be stable. Like the BMW Isetta, and the Messerschmitt KR-175.
gmporschenut also a fan of hondas
> fintail
03/06/2020 at 22:06 | 1 |
only saving grace for my Dads Model A is how many pri stine examples get chopped up for crappy boyd coddington hasbeens
slipperysallylikespenguins
> zipfuel
03/06/2020 at 22:12 | 0 |
I don’t think there will be much of a drop. Especially with the popularity of Youtube channels showcasing and introducing classic cars to another generation, there are more car collectors now than ever before. Those Youtube videos portray owning a classic look like a romantic affair and they do a great job convincing people. Combine that with the increased complexity and driver disconnect in modern daily drivers and the demand is only going to go up for the foreseeable future.
Very original and clean cars will always be desirable. The rougher unoriginal ones will most likely be updated with modern engine and suspension swaps as younger people buy them.
I think the biggest thing to watch for is if classic cars ever get heavily taxed or eventually banned, but that is likely decades away. That is the biggest threat to the value of classic cars.
RangerSmith
> fintail
03/06/2020 at 22:23 | 3 |
Currently seeing it with the 50s cars. Although I think Boomers children are slowing the process. Holding onto Dad’s old cars after he passed away. I know of some pretty cool old TBirds
not too far from me. Parked inside.
The restorations on those is probably pushing 30 years old and I don’t think they’ve moved in the last 15.
zipfuel
> gmporschenut also a fan of hondas
03/06/2020 at 22:30 | 0 |
So.many.fuckin.bucket.roadsters. it’s really refreshing when you find something
with a h
ood on it
If only EssExTee could be so grossly incandescent
> zipfuel
03/06/2020 at 22:33 | 2 |
Don’t forget that the knowledge to keep these cars running is also dying. The number of people that could, say, rebuild a points ignition system gets smaller every year.
The parts networks for these cars, especially the esoteric ones, are all run by baby boomers too. The parts support for classic Studebakers is basically just one dude who spent his whole life buying as many cars and parts as possible and eventually started his own warehouse. He’s probably around 80 now. What happens when he passes? Having a new bumper fabricated for a Lark could cost an owner as much as the car is worth.
Cool classics might start entering the market in drove s but there won’t be anyone left who truly cares about them. They’ll be snatched up cheap and run into the ground and then there will be none left.
Nom De Plume
> zipfuel
03/06/2020 at 22:36 | 1 |
Forget insurance and roadworthy numbers. Look at the low percentage of kids bothering to get a license.
gmctavish needs more space
> zipfuel
03/06/2020 at 22:41 | 2 |
I need to get a property and build a real big shop to fill with cheap nice old cars once they start getting cheap
fintail
> zipfuel
03/06/2020 at 22:47 | 1 |
I’ve always loved this little chase scene:
Both of those cars are probably cheaper now than in 1985. I like cars of that era too.
gmporschenut also a fan of hondas
> zipfuel
03/06/2020 at 22:50 | 0 |
i fundamentally don’t understand why they pay extra to start with a full car when they’ re chopping 1/2 car off.
fintail
> RangerSmith
03/06/2020 at 22:51 | 0 |
Good point. Boomers can be hoarders and like to collect things. Maybe a real impact will be seen in another 10-20 years when boomers start moving en masse to retirement and assisted living areas.
Eventually, some wingadinga material will be cheap, and some of it is pretty stylish, which bodes well for enthusiasts. Just hoping we still have gas stations then.
fintail
> lone_liberal
03/06/2020 at 22:53 | 1 |
Yeah, 60s stuff will decline slower, especially later 60s stuff, as muscle is still pretty cool. But ordinary 50s cars are the next As and Ts, so if you want that original Crown Vic or nice forward look Mopar, there might be deals in the not too long term.
SmugAardvark
> zipfuel
03/06/2020 at 23:05 | 1 |
I’m hoping it drops in the next couple years, because I would love to sell the C5 and buy a C2. But if not, a pre-’76 C3 would be okay. And thankfully, those are still somewhat reasonable.
zipfuel
> TheRealBicycleBuck
03/06/2020 at 23:16 | 1 |
Awesome!
T
hanks for that, confirms my suspicions at least at the silly money end of the market
gmporschenut also a fan of hondas
> TheRealBicycleBuck
03/06/2020 at 23:22 | 1 |
i would only question what is the make up of market of the 1m cars vs sub 100k models? For every 300sl there are a hundred 230sl..
zipfuel
> If only EssExTee could be so grossly incandescent
03/06/2020 at 23:34 | 0 |
I’m thinking to some degree the restomod thing will happen like people used to put SBCs into everything. Although that’s a pain so yeah it’ll think the herd some more. If I ever get lucky enough to have some old classic it’s probably going to wind up with a hood full of batteries and a kit like this:
https://a.aliexpress.com/_dV8iWdJ
zipfuel
> fintail
03/06/2020 at 23:42 | 1 |
That was some solid stunt work! Yeah that big black car is what I want
TheJWT
> zipfuel
03/07/2020 at 00:00 | 0 |
Sometimes I like to think that the entire classic car market is going to tank eventually and regular people will actually be able to afford them again, but then I see BaT is auctioning a Grand Marquis or a 1991 Accord and I lose all hope once more.
fintail
> zipfuel
03/07/2020 at 00:27 | 0 |
It’s a Packard from 1929/30, I believe. Not the cheapest old car, but they aren’t really appreciating either. I can’t imagine manhandling something like that as in that chase scene, love the slide.
zipfuel
> fintail
03/07/2020 at 07:15 | 0 |
Yeah I looked it up on imcdb and then went searching for Packards. There’s the usual stupid pricy concours cars but s
eems
like the
rest all cost ~
$40k
zipfuel
> TheJWT
03/07/2020 at 07:21 | 0 |
Well regrettably the
radwood/litwood cars are going to keep going up cos the generation who are into then is still
alive. Its the thousands of American graffiti knockoffs and muscle/pony
cars that are due to
tank.
fintail
> zipfuel
03/07/2020 at 12:20 | 1 |
For a relatively plain looking sedan like that, I bet you could get a nice driver quality car for no more than 30K. That was a highline car when new, and carries a premium. If you wanted something like a Model A or mainstream car, you’ll be under 15K for even a very nice car unless it is an open car, and these days even those often don’t bring much more. Model Ts can be had for under 10K all day long.